Esteemed readers,
Today we're tackling a subject that's so talked about, so scrutinised and so toxic that I know I've already lost readers with the title alone.
But I want to talk to you about penalties from a different point of view from the usual TV programmes that show us frame after frame of the moves that precede the referee's decision, as if football were chess...
This type of situation, was first proposed in 1890 in England by... a goalkeeper called William McCrum.
But it’s also not because of historical matters that I am writing to you today.
A very frequent comment, even made by elite coaches, that we hear is the "penalty lottery", attributing the outcome of these shots to luck, which is even more common when we're in the shoot-out phase of a game in which five penalties are awarded to each team. It's quite understandable that a percentage of the outcome is attributed to luck, as it is in any bounce or deflection of the ball during the 90 minutes, but to say that it's the most important factor has always puzzled me.
Perhaps the luck part is also more talked about because the theoretically weaker teams have a tangible chance of eliminating the stronger ones in this type of tie-breaker, but when that happens, is it due to randomness? Are there no conditions that can be applied to maximise the chances of converting penalties into goals? Is it all about shooting and hoping the goalkeeper chooses the wrong side?
It is precisely to answer these questions that I address this topic in this edition of Factball. We'll look at what researchers have said on the subject over the years and see if luck really is an inevitability.
Come along for another fact-based analysis!
The science of penalties
First of all, it's important to bear in mind that a penalty kick that is converted into a goal is the most likely scenario to happen, which is easy to understand given the sizes of the goal, the goalkeeper and the ball, the proximity of the shot to the goal and the fact that there is no opposition other than the goalkeeper.
According to the latest expected goals (xG) models from both Opta and StatsBomb, a penalty kick is expected to be converted 78% or 79% of the time, respectively.
So what we want to analyse here is whether there really are strategies or mechanisms to make this figure higher for shooters or lower for goalkeepers.
So let's start with a 2007 study by Geir Jordet and some other researchers. I single out Jordet because it's clear from my research that he's one of the leading academic experts in this field and has several studies in my analysis. In this first investigation, 409 shots in the penalty shoot-out phase in major competitions (World Cups, Euros and America's Cups) between 1976 and 2004 were analysed. Here are the main conclusions:
It is more difficult to score goals in World Cups (71.2%) than in continental competitions such as the Copa America (82.7%) and the European Championship (84.6%).
With the exception of penalty number 5 (which is regularly the most decisive), the success of shots decreases as you progress through the shoot-out. The first penalty is the most converted, 86.6% of the time, and from the 6th to the 9th the odds drop to 64.3%.
It can therefore be concluded that the importance of the moment, measured by the competition being played in and the number of the penalty being taken, has a negative impact on the success of the shot.
On the other hand, it was also found that player skill (measured by position on the pitch) and fatigue (measured by playing time) do not have a significant impact on shooting success.
Let's now look at the main conclusions of another dissertation from 2009, also by Jordet, which analysed 366 penalties in World Cups, Euros and Champions Leagues.
The longer a player takes in the process leading up to the shot (walking to the penalty spot, placing the ball, stepping back, waiting for the referee's whistle, reacting to the whistle and running to the ball), the more likely the shot is to be successful.
Players who take less than a second to put the ball on the spot score 58% of their shots, while those who take longer score around 80%.
Players who take longer to react to the referee's whistle are more likely to succeed than those who run straight to the ball.
It follows that the pressure of the moment on the player may make him want to "get on with it" and thus have a lower chance of success. This conclusion is further amplified by another 2012 study which tells us that when goalkeepers identify this behaviour, they gain confidence and end up saving more shots.
Another investigation from 2009 (guess what? also with Jordet's participation) shows us that post-match behaviour has a tremendous impact on the final result of a penalty shoot-out.
82% of the players who celebrated their goal in an effusive manner ended up on the winning team. We are told that this behaviour encourages and is contagious to the team itself.
In addition to this effect, the exuberance of the celebrations also has a negative impact on the opponent, since the player who shoots after an effusive celebration is twice as likely to miss his shot.
Finally, let's look at a study that shows us this phenomenon from the goalkeeper's perspective.
In 2010, two researchers showed that shooters are less likely to succeed when faced with a goalkeeper who is waving his arms than one who is standing still, and that the shots are therefore placed closer to the goalkeepers.
It is only in the absence of such preparation that the “lottery” really begins.
Wood, et al. (2015)
The best
Now that we know a little more about this type of game situation, it's worth honouring the best penalty performers throughout history.
As of today (22/10/2023), in absolute terms, there are "only" 5 players who have exceeded 100 penalties, and only 2 of them are still playing:
Cristiano Ronaldo - 157
Romário - 114
Ronald Koeman - 113 (The first one to break the 100 barrier, in 1995)
Lionel Messi - 108
Roberto Baggio - 100
When it comes to the most penalties saved in the 21st century in the top 5 European leagues, these are the stars:
Samir Handanovic - 38
Gianluigi Buffon - 30
Diego Alves - 26
Manuel Neuer - 25
Andrea Consigli, Mickaël Landreau, and Petr Cech - 21
Note: both of the rankings presented above are not the most interesting, but they are the ones that have sources with an adequate level of legitimacy that I have had access to. In terms of penalties converted, I'd like to analyse conversion rates and we'd probably find names like Matt Le Tissier, Alan Shearer, Michel Platini and Marco Van Basten in that ranking. As for penalties saved, it would also be more interesting to see older data and that would certainly include Lev Yashin, who, according to FIFA, has saved more than 150 penalties in his career.
Conclusion
If you already suspected it, now you can have no doubt that penalties are much more than a lottery.
Practising shooting has always been and will always be something many players work on, either on their own initiative or at the coach's behest, but what seems to be more difficult to rehearse are the emotional and psychological conditions of these moments. And this is precisely where I believe the fundamental issue of this article lies.
At a time when technology is, as never before, at the service of athletes, there is a need to elevate the training of these moves to the mental component and design training sessions, whether they are mental visualisation or through virtual reality, in order to simulate the most adverse environments and contexts so that nothing is left to chance.
I know that there is still nothing that will simulate the anguish and nervousness of taking a penalty in the World Cup or Champions League final, but it is certainly for situations like these that all athletes should train.
Beyond this, it seems clear that for shooters it's crucial to take their time in the process leading up to the shot and avoid distractions from the goalkeeper as much as possible by focussing on where they want to put the ball. At the end of it all, let yourself be carried away by the joy of the goal and celebrate as if it were the goal that gives you the final victory!
As for the goalkeepers, "making yourself look big" in goal seems to be a very effective tactic and they should never give it up. Of course, getting to the level of Dibu Martínez will be up to each individual. In addition, wearing a red shirt when possible certainly wouldn't hurt.
Finally, as far as coaches are concerned, it's essential to know exactly who should take each penalty, and for that you need a deep understanding of the mentality of your players. In addition, it's necessary to combat the biases of technical quality and status within the squad, which can sometimes not be translated into competence at this particular moment in the game.
Best regards and a Panenka penalty,
João Francisco
Extra Time
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